Price outlook

• Beef and veal

  ▲Rising

  Store prices: full-year 2026 forecast up 9.4% (range 7.4 to 11.6). 20-year average 4.5% a year. The latest month was up 5.9% from a year earlier.

  Before the store: Wholesale beef full-year 2026 forecast up 8.5% (range 3.0 to 15.0), latest month up 3.1% from a year earlier; Farm-level cattle full-year 2026 forecast up 7.1% (range 3.8 to 10.9), latest month down 3.9% from a year earlier.

  Pantry staples in this group: Ground beef (frozen)

• Sugar and sweets

  ▲Rising

  Store prices: full-year 2026 forecast up 6.6% (range 5.8 to 7.4). 20-year average 3.1% a year. The latest month was up 6.1% from a year earlier.

  Pantry staples in this group: Sugar, Jelly or jam

• Fish and seafood

  ▲Rising

  Store prices: full-year 2026 forecast up 5.9% (range 5.0 to 6.8). 20-year average 3.0% a year. The latest month was up 6.5% from a year earlier.

  Pantry staples in this group: Canned tuna

• Fresh vegetables

  ▲Rising

  Store prices: full-year 2026 forecast up 5.7% (range 4.3 to 7.2). 20-year average 1.7% a year. The latest month was up 2.6% from a year earlier.

  Before the store: Farm-level vegetables full-year 2026 forecast up 16.0% (range 7.7 to 26.8), latest month down 7.3% from a year earlier.

• Coffee, tea and other drinks

  ▲Rising

  Store prices: full-year 2026 forecast up 4.2% (range 3.5 to 5.0). 20-year average 2.4% a year. The latest month was up 3.7% from a year earlier.

  Pantry staples in this group: Ground coffee, Tea bags

• Fresh fruits

  ▲Rising

  Store prices: full-year 2026 forecast up 2.5% (range 1.5 to 3.7). 20-year average 1.7% a year. The latest month was up 3.8% from a year earlier.

  Before the store: Farm-level fruits full-year 2026 forecast down 4.1% (range -7.8 to 0.0), latest month up 7.6% from a year earlier.

• Canned, dried and frozen produce

  ◆Early warning

  Store prices: full-year 2026 forecast up 3.1% (range 2.3 to 4.0). 20-year average 2.8% a year. The latest month was up 3.2% from a year earlier.

  Before the store: Farm-level vegetables full-year 2026 forecast up 16.0% (range 7.7 to 26.8), latest month down 7.3% from a year earlier.

  Estimated time to reach the shelf: Feb 2027 to May 2027 assumed lag, not yet measured

  Pantry staples in this group: Dried beans, Lentils, Canned beans, Canned tomatoes, Canned vegetables, Canned fruit, Instant potatoes

• Cereals and bakery

  ◆Early warning

  Store prices: full-year 2026 forecast up 2.5% (range 1.9 to 3.1). 20-year average 2.8% a year. The latest month was up 2.6% from a year earlier.

  Before the store: Farm-level wheat full-year 2026 forecast up 18.3% (range 11.4 to 26.9), latest month up 35.1% from a year earlier; Wholesale wheat flour full-year 2026 forecast up 2.5% (range 0.0 to 5.1), latest month up 5.7% from a year earlier.

  Estimated time to reach the shelf: Feb 2027 to May 2027 assumed lag, not yet measured

  Pantry staples in this group: White rice, Pasta, All-purpose flour, Rolled oats, Cornmeal, Crackers, Boxed mac and cheese

• Fats and oils

  ◆Early warning

  Store prices: full-year 2026 forecast down 0.8% (range -1.7 to 0.2). 20-year average 3.3% a year. The latest month was down 0.3% from a year earlier.

  Before the store: Wholesale fats and oils full-year 2026 forecast up 19.2% (range 16.3 to 22.4), latest month up 21.2% from a year earlier; Farm-level soybeans full-year 2026 forecast up 12.4% (range 6.4 to 19.5), latest month up 18.9% from a year earlier.

  Estimated time to reach the shelf: Feb 2027 to May 2027 assumed lag, not yet measured

  Pantry staples in this group: Cooking oil, Peanut butter

• Other meats

  ▼Below normal

  Store prices: full-year 2026 forecast up 1.6% (range 0.7 to 2.6). 20-year average 2.6% a year. The latest month was up 1.5% from a year earlier.

• Pork

  ▼Below normal

  Store prices: full-year 2026 forecast up 1.2% (range -0.1 to 2.6). 20-year average 2.2% a year. The latest month was up 0.6% from a year earlier.

  Before the store: Wholesale pork full-year 2026 forecast down 9.4% (range -12.8 to -5.4), latest month down 13.9% from a year earlier.

  Pantry staples in this group: Pork (frozen)

• Poultry

  ▼Below normal

  Store prices: full-year 2026 forecast up 1.0% (range 0.0 to 2.1). 20-year average 2.7% a year. The latest month was up 0.5% from a year earlier.

  Before the store: Wholesale poultry full-year 2026 forecast down 4.9% (range -7.3 to -2.3), latest month down 12.5% from a year earlier.

  Pantry staples in this group: Canned chicken, Chicken (frozen)

• Dairy products

  ▼Below normal

  Store prices: full-year 2026 forecast up 0.1% (range -0.6 to 0.8). 20-year average 2.1% a year. The latest month was down 0.3% from a year earlier.

  Before the store: Wholesale dairy full-year 2026 forecast down 0.7% (range -2.7 to 1.4), latest month down 0.7% from a year earlier; Farm-level milk full-year 2026 forecast down 9.4% (range -14.2 to -3.8), latest month down 10.2% from a year earlier.

  Pantry staples in this group: Powdered milk

• Eggs

  ▼Below normal

  Store prices: full-year 2026 forecast down 29.4% (range -32.9 to -25.2), which runs past the edge of the chart. 20-year average 6.0% a year. The latest month was down 23.0% from a year earlier.

  Before the store: Farm-level eggs full-year 2026 forecast down 79.2% (range -82.8 to -72.1), latest month down 59.4% from a year earlier.

• Soups, sauces and seasonings

  ●Near normal

  Store prices: full-year 2026 forecast up 2.1% (range 1.5 to 2.8). 20-year average 2.4% a year. The latest month was up 2.1% from a year earlier.

  Pantry staples in this group: Canned soup, Broth, Bouillon cubes, Pasta sauce, Salsa, Chili powder, Baking powder

USDA ERS Food Price Outlook (data through August 2026). USDA Food Price Outlook (opens in a new tab). A full-year forecast compares the average of all months in 2026 with the average of the year before. The range is USDA’s forecast interval. Lag times are starting assumptions (2 to 3 months for fresh foods, 6 to 9 for shelf-stable) and have not been measured against USDA history yet.